Bloomberg reported on February 9 that the starting price for the upcoming Model 3 will indeed be $35,000. That information was confirmed by Tesla spokesperson Khobi Brooklyn, who told Bloomberg, “We can confirm it’s $35,000 before incentives. We haven’t changed our minds.” More than a year ago, Elon Musk told reporters, “When I say $35,000, I’m talking about without any credits.”

EV incentives start with the $7,500 federal tax credit that anyone who buys a qualifying electric or plug-in hybrid car is eligible for. (That’s assuming the buyer actually has a federal tax liability of $7,500.) On top of the federal credit, many states offer incentives of their own. Colorado has the highest state benefit — $6,000. California, Massachusetts and Tennessee offer EV buyers $2,500. Rhode Island has just announced a $2,500 incentive, but there are only enough funds to cover less than 100 cars before the money runs out.

That means a Colorado resident could potentially park a Tesla Model 3 on the driveway for as little as $21,500. The average price of a new car today is $31,000, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Salim Morsy. Almost all the mass market vehicles above that price are SUVs or trucks, Morsy says. The BMW 3 series sedan is the closest vehicle in size to the Model 3 that sells more than 100,000 units a year. It’s starting price is $35,000 and, of course, there are no incentives to buy one.

Before we get carried away, though, there are a few speed bumps on the road to the $35,000 Model 3. Tesla will reveal first pictures of the Model 3 next month but it’s likely that Tesla will offer Signature Series cars in its initial run for those willing to pay large deposits. After all, that’s what it did with the Model S and Model X. Those Signature Series cars were priced considerably higher than many people expected.

There is also the possibility that the Model 3 doesn’t go on sale in 2017. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is on record as saying he doubts the Model 3 will arrive before 2018. And when it does, early cars may be loaded with expensive options the way the Model X Signature Series cars were. Jonas wouldn’t be surprised if the first cars off the assembly line were priced close to $60,000.

Keep in mind, the federal tax credit begins to phase out after a manufacturer sells 200,000 electric cars. If the Model 3 is delayed, Tesla may be close to the point where that phase out begins. As Bloomberg says, at some point, that $35,000 Model 3 is going to just be a $35,000 Model 3, subject to whatever state incentives are available.

Want to know more? You will have to wait for the March reveal. “The Model 3 is on time, and everyone is going to learn more about it at the end of March,” Khobi Brooklyn says. “That’s when we’ve committed to talking about it and giving a really great update, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

Chart: Bloomberg Business. Photo credit: Tesla Motors

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Tesla had plenty of good news to announce in its Q4 earnings call today. First and foremost, the company experienced a $179 million positive core operational cash flow in Q4 and $44 million for the year. Despite a $1.5 billion investment into the Gigafactory, Tesla’s 2016 outlook sees the company generating positive net cash flow and achieve non-GAAP profitability for the full year.

Model S

Demand for the Model S remains strong despite record low gasoline prices. Tesla says its customers are more focused on superior performance, technology, safety, lower environmental impact, and style than they are on saving money on fuel costs.

After being jabbed quite hard by Consumer Reports over reliability issues last  year, Tesla reports its repair experience for cars built in 2015 was half what it was the prior year and one quarter what it was for cars manufactured in 2012.

Market share of Model S continues to expand into global markets. The company saw a 76% increase in global deliveries in Q4, making it the number one selling luxury sedan in the U.S, outselling comparably priced four-door sedans from Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Jaguar, and Porsche.

Model S took share from all incumbent manufacturers to become the #1 selling
comparably priced four-door sedan pic.twitter.com/IIa7wKHPrj

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) February 10, 2016

Model X

Model X reservations grew by 75% compared to 2015. After deliberately limiting Model X production in the fourth quarter to address quality control issues, the company says it plans to increase production of the Model X to approximately 1,000 units a week in Q2. Tesla began rolling out a test drive program for reservation holders recently and expects the Model X to start hitting the showroom floors this quarter.

Tesla Energy

Tesla Energy news is strongly positive as well. Production has been transferred to the Gigafactory, where manufacture for Powerwall and Powerpack is now up and running. The first residential and commercial installations in the US, Germany, and Australia have been completed.

The energy storage side of the business is already experiencing positive gross margins. The company believes its energy storage customers will become valuable potential new car purchasers as well.

Growth and Production

Tesla anticipates another year with 60 to 80% sales growth, and expects to deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 new cars in 2016. It foresees gross margins approaching 30% and a positive net cash flow from the second quarter onward.

Model 3

Following confirmation by the company that the Model 3 will sell for $35,000, Tesla has set a March 31 date for when it will release more information about the vehicle. It says the car is “on schedule” and the production will begin in late 2017.

We will update you further at the end of the press conference and conference call with analysts later today.

Tesla shares were up 14 percent in after-hours trading after closing at $143.67.

The post Tesla Q4 Earnings Summary, Sees Profitability in 2016 appeared first on TESLARATI.com.

Just hours after delivering Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, Elon took to Twitter to announce new details about the upcoming Model 3. The low-cost, mass-market electric vehicle will be available for in-store reservations beginning on March 31st and online the following day. No Signature Series version will be available.

No signature series for Model 3. Same reservation amount for all.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 11, 2016

More details on Model 3 unveil in coming weeks. That's it for now.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 11, 2016

During yesterday’s press conference, Musk told the audience,

“Our default plan as we have done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car, because we’ve got to pay back the investment of the tooling and everything, so it makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. That’s what we did with the S and obviously again with the X.”

Responding to a tweet from a potential customer, Elon replied that reservations for the Model 3 will be accepted from anywhere in the world, not just the United States.

Early reservation numbers do not necessarily guarantee early deliveries. In fact, according to Musk’s statement, the best way to get a Model 3 early may be to order it with every option available. The company strives to maximize efficiency throughout the manufacturing process. That includes building cars going to roughly the same location at the same time, regardless of when they were ordered.

Tesla has also confirmed the starting price of the Model 3 will be $35,000. That’s before any federal or state incentives that may apply.

The company announced yesterday during its Q4 earnings call that March 31 would be the date when the public gets its first look at the Model 3. Musk revealed that he and his team have not yet decided whether to show the car off fully on that date or play their cards close to the vest, holding back some details until closer to the actual start of production. Until then, the world will be waiting anxiously until March 31 to see what the company decides to do.

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Tesla will begin accepting in-store Model 3 reservations on March 31st but amidst the growing aura of excitement and anticipation leading up to the event, many within the community are questioning how the company will determine reservation priority.

Will Tesla take into account Time Zones when reservations are placed? How do I ensure that my reservation is placed into an early queue?

Those are some of the questions that hopeful Tesla buyers – especially those that have been priced out of the much costlier Model S and Model X – have been asking after having waited several years for the opportunity to purchase Tesla’s promise of a $35,000 Model 3 before incentives.

Some contributors within the forum community suggest that Tesla should factor in Time Zone offsets so that an order placed at 9:01 am in New York will receive the same priority in the reservation queue as an order placed at 9:01 am on San Francisco. Others think stores in the East coast shouldn’t open until noon, 11 am in Chicago, 10 am in Denver, and 9 am in San Diego. That way, people all across America will get an equal opportunity to have a low reservation number.

All of this angst fails to take into account a few things we know about how Tesla builds its cars, based upon its history with the Model S and Model X. Production at the Fremont factory is batched by like-kind configurations and geography in order to maintain the highest level of efficiency. For better or worse, that usually means cars destined for the West coast get manufactured first. Tesla also likes to fill a delivery truck with cars going to the same location whenever possible to avoid moving cars around en route. It’s more likely that 8 cars for buyers in Los Angeles will get built together and put on the same truck before a low reservation number car gets produced for someone in Aroostook County, Maine.

Also, keep in mind that Elon announced during the Q4 earnings call the most heavily optioned cars will be built first. So a person who plunks down a deposit on an entry level, no frills car will wait longer that the customer who ticks every box in the Model 3 Design Studio even if the reservation is received later.

More than a few people have questioned the purpose of taking reservations only at Tesla stores on the 31st and then opening the process to online orders the following day. Presumably, Tesla hopes to generate some media buzz if the line to reserve a Model 3 stretches out the front door, around the corner, and down the block. The company has not offered any explanation for the bifurcated ordering process.

Speculation is rampant about how many reservations Tesla will get on day one. The best guess is — a lot.

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During Tesla’s most recent Q4 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk suggested that the Model X was perhaps a bit over engineered. “We put too many new features and technology — too many great things all at once into a product,” he said. It’s been widely reported that the complex design of the falcon wing door may have led to the delay of the Model X.

In retrospect, Musk admitted the company should have introduced all of the advanced technological features of the vehicle over time instead of releasing it all at once. After all, that’s the same philosophy Tesla had when it launched the Model S. The award winning electric sedan saw a combination of hardware and software updates, including the obvious dual motor and Autopilot suite of features, over the course of 2 years.

The unique dual-hinged Model X falcon wing doors are no doubt an instant crowd pleaser wherever it goes. An array of sensors allows each independently operated door to detect distance between the vehicle’s roofline and neighboring obstacles. The end result is a door that has amazing range of motion and extreme wow factor.

That's sick falcon wing doors pic.twitter.com/1VJjeRsssj @danielsparks

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 30, 2015

Financial analyst Daniel Sparks of The Motley Fool says those doors could prove to have tremendous appeal for shoppers considering the new Model 3. Just as the Corvette is the halo car for everything Chevrolet builds, the Model X sends out powerful vibrations that excite and enthrall potential customers for other Tesla products.

“The Model X is an obvious crowd generator and I believe the flashy falcon wing doors, auto presenting front doors, massive windshield, and all the factors Musk may refer to as ‘over engineered’ will serve a critical role in at least doubling foot traffic to Tesla stores when the SUV finally makes it to Tesla’s high foot-traffic retail locations. Before the Model 3 unveil, this wouldn’t have mattered. But with the Model 3 soon available for pre-order, Tesla will be able to convert foot traffic into orders,” says Sparks.

It may be just a serendipitous occurrence, but by the time the Model 3 is unveiled in Tesla stores, there may very well be a Model X on the showroom floor. For a company that studiously avoids all forms of advertising, product placements, and paid endorsements, the aura the Model X creates may be all that is needed to prompt a tidal wave of reservations for the Model 3.

Source: Daniel Sparks via The Motley Fool

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Model 3 buyers may not be able to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, for two reasons. First, the federal credit under Internal Revenue Code Section 30D (IRC 30D) begins to decrease once a manufacturer reaches 200,000 qualifying EV sales in the US.

Second, the $35,000 price tag of the Model 3 (before incentives) will appeal to mass market buyers who may not necessarily fall into the same high income bracket as those that purchase the Model S and Model X. As Evan Niu of The Motley Fool explains, “The $7,500 credit can only be applied if the customer has a tax liability of $7,500 or more, and any unused portion is not refundable and can not be carried forward”. This means any person taking home $50,000 a year or less may not have a large enough tax liability to qualify for the full $7,500 federal tax credit.

Let’s take a closer look at both of these factors.

The Incredible Shrinking Tax Credit

Congress, in its infinite wisdom, enacted the federal tax credit to give manufacturers an incentive to sell electric cars. It is a pump priming strategy that was meant to have a relatively short shelf life at 200,000 vehicles sold.

Tesla does not break down its sales numbers by country, but in its most recent letter to shareholders it said it sold 42,000 Model S sedans in America in 2014 and 2015. Elon Musk says the company will deliver between 80,000 and 90,000 cars this year. Assuming half of those go to US customers and adding in estimated sales in 2012 and 2013, Tesla could approach that 200,000 mark in calendar year 2018.

Pictured above: Tesla Store grand opening in Hingham, MA via Rob M

After that, the EV incentive program enters into a “phase out period” at which point the tax credits are cut to 50% and 25% of the original $7,500 credit over the next 6 to 12 months, respectively, until the plan is eventually phased out in its entirety. Based on Tesla’s sales figures and projected growth rate, analysts expect that to happen for Tesla in 2018.

IRC 30D states:

The critical factor in determining whether Model 3 buyers will be able to take advantage of the full tax credit will be timing. For every month the Model 3 gets delayed, more Model S and Model X cars will be sold, getting the company closer to that 200,000 phase out period.

The Demographics of Model 3 Buyers

It seems fairly obvious that someone looking for a $35,000 Model 3 will be in a different socio-economic status than a person looking to purchase a Model S P90D. The way the federal tax credit is set up, if a person only owes $5,000 to the IRS for the year in which a qualifying car is purchased, the credit is limited to $5,000. Any excess is lost. The taxpayer cannot carry over any unused portion to a subsequent tax year.

Other Considerations

Several other factors will make that $35,000 Model 3 a rare bird indeed. Tesla has already indicated it will build the cars with the most options first. This is normal procedure for the company. For instance, manufacturing on the Founders Edition and Signature Series Model X began first followed by P90D production cars. It may be a while yet before any entry level 70D Model X cars get built.

Similarly, the first Model 3 cars will likely have the largest battery available (70 kWh? 90 kWh?). If dual motors are offered, the first cars will have those as well. Panoramic roof, upgraded interiors, premium sound systems, Autopilot activation, and a host of other extra cost options will push many cars close to $60,000. Even with the full federal tax credit, a fully loaded Model 3 will cost far more than $35,000.

It could easily be a year or more after the Model 3 is introduced before any entry level $35,000 Model 3 is available. By then, the federal tax credit will likely be long since used up.

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With the official introduction of the Model 3 just a month away, Tesla CTO JB Straubel had some things to say about the car last week at the IHS Energy CERAWeek event in Houston. No, he didn’t reveal any information about what it might look like, but he did it say it will feature the “next generation” of Tesla technology. The Model 3 is scheduled to begin production in late 2017 and list for $35,000 before incentives.

According to Houston Chronicle, Straubel said the focus for the Model 3 is on lowering component costs and boosting volumes. “We don’t really need more performance; we don’t really need much more range; we need to focus on cost.” He said the car is comparable in size to an Audi A4. “I think it will surprise people with the level of features it includes,” he said and added that Tesla’s reputation for constant innovation will continue with the Model 3.

One avenue Tesla does not plan to pursue is hydrogen fuel cell technology. Straubel said “fundamental problems” remain with hydrogen as a fuel source. In particular, limited infrastructure inhibits it from being sustainable and cost efficient.

On the other hand, the lithium which is used in Tesla’s battery packs is abundant and could even be extracted from sea water in the future, he said. Overall, battery costs are declining through advances in manufacturing. Lower costs will lead to significant improvements in the amount of electrical energy that can be stored and to building batteries on a larger scale.

Straubel indicated that electric motor costs are also declining. “Basically, every single part of that electric vehicle ecosystem is dropping substantially, he said.

He reminded his audience that when Tesla first began selling the Model S, industry observers thought demand for the car would top out at 3,000 cars. “We’re selling tens of thousands of cars per year,” Straubel said. Once the Model 3 joins the Model S and Model X, Tesla claims it will be selling hundreds of thousands of cars a year.

Excitement is high over the coming reveal of the Model 3. Some think Tesla stores will have lines of people waiting to reserve one on March 31. Online sales won’t begin until April 1, so people who want a low reservation number will need to visit a Tesla store to get one. The reservation fee for the Model 3 is a very modest $1,000 and is fully refundable.

Photo credit: Twitter: @chr1st1nab

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A recent letter by Tesla suggests that the official Model 3 unveiling event will take place on the evening of March 31st in Los Angeles, presumably at the Hawthorne Design Center – site for previously hosted events such as the Model S unveil, the battery swap demonstration, and the infamous ‘D event’.

A copy of the invitation letter was posted to the Tesla Motors Club forum by Reeler showing the company’s acknowledgement that he has won two tickets to attend the upcoming Model 3 unveiling event. The invitation to attend the Model 3 event was offered as a prize in Tesla’s second Referral Program. Each owner that made 10 or more qualifying Model S referral sales by the end of 2015 would receive an invitation for two to attend the highly anticipated Model 3 unveiling event.

Tesla Model 3 unveiling event on March 31st. Reprinted with permission from the owner.

As far as what to expect from the event is anyone’s guess but what we do know, based on Elon Musk’s remarks from a special Tesla event held in France, the company won’t be unveiling all of the details of the Model 3 from the onset. According to Musk, “The first pictures of the Model 3 will be end of March [and] we are not gonna show everything about the Model 3 until a lot closer to production time.”.

Previous Tesla events held at the Design Center in Hawthorne, CA

So what does this say about the March 31st evening event in Southern California? Will attendees of the Model 3 unveiling event see a functional prototype of Tesla’s affordable mass-market vehicle with ‘next generation Tesla technology’ or will it turn out to be an extension of the reservation event that will be taking place earlier in the day across Tesla stores?

There’s been a frenzied excitement in the air ever since Musk first announced that Model 3 reservations would require a $1,000 deposit and begin in stores on March 31st, and online the day after. Model 3 hopefuls have even gone as far as speculating on how Tesla will prioritize reservations given the differences in time zones across Tesla stores.

Though finer details of the Model 3 won’t emerge until the official unveiling event, we know that the vehicle will be similar in size as the Audi A4, have over 200 miles of range, and cost $35,000 before incentives.

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Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdhry released a note to investors today confirming that the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 will be unveiled on March 31st at Tesla’s Hawthorne Design Center, constructed of steel, and have at least 200 miles of range. Chowdhry also indicated that production and first deliveries of the Model 3 will take place by the end of 2017. These warm words sent the price of the stock up sharply in today’s trading.

Chowdhry gives two reasons for his optimism. First, he said the Model 3 would have “completely different vehicle architecture — both the chassis and the battery chemistry — hence will have different power density and energy density trade off.” Chodhry’s statement seemingly aligns with Tesla CTO JB Straubel’s recent comment that the Model 3 will have “next generation Tesla technology”.

Tesla Model 3 rendition by Auto Express

Second, Chowdhry says the composition of the Model 3 will be built completely from steel, unlike the Model S and Model X whose frame and body is fabricated from aluminum. By using an all steel construction, Tesla is able to maintain lower costs all around. The use of steel will lower production material costs as well as reduce labor costs since the level of training and skill needed for steel workers is much lower than that of aluminum workers. Working with steel is also simpler relative to aluminum thereby allowing Tesla to turnaround production of vehicles at a much higher rate.
Chowdhry believes the lesser challenges presented by building a car from steel will help production begin on time. According to Benzinga, Chowdhry reiterated, “Since Tesla Model 3 will be built using steel instead of aluminum, the production and deliveries for late 2017 will very likely be on schedule: steel is a lot easy [sic].” He also believes the advantages of new battery chemistry and lower cost will create a strong market for the car once it goes on sale on March 31st.

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If you’re on the verge of buying your first Model S or Model X and have spent countless hours toggling between what seemingly feels like an endless combination of wheels and interior trim options, I encourage you to go visit a Tesla Store (or Service Center) and see everything in person. This applies to you upcoming Model 3 buyers as well. You’ll know what I mean.

The Tesla Design Studio is a dreamer’s playground and an indecisive buyer’s worst nightmare. Unlike a traditional dealership model where pushy sales person offers you free instant coffee in exchange for your signature that will commit you to owning a vehicle with preselected options, buying a Tesla couldn’t be more different. It’s fun. It’s efficient – heck, Tesla makes buying a car no different than buying a multi-pack of toothpaste from Amazon.com – and it’s addictive (expect to login to My Tesla relentlessly).

However, take away the ability to be forced into an on-the-spot impulse buy and the experience can actually become more, stressful?

The Tesla Design Studio offers a great selection of options. You’re literally given 100% freedom to custom build the vehicle of your dreams. From battery size, to paint color, to seating options, and down to the onboard gadgetry (ie. Autopilot, lighting), you are in full control of what ends up being delivered to you. But with the freedom also comes decision paralysis. There’s plenty of discussions across the Tesla forum where would-be buyers solicit help from the community in choosing their configuration.

Making a product selection through a 2D illustration can never replace being able to see the item in person. Case in point. Choosing wheels through the Model S configurator looks something like this. Pick a wheel size. Pick a shade of color, and pick a wheel design. Well, the fact that they all look great in the illustration doesn’t help in the decision making process.

Instead, go visit a Tesla showroom and see the wheels in person. You’ll see shadows casted off of the unique contours of each wheel design. And you’ll see what silver and grey really look like in person. All of which you can’t do when looking at an illustration through the online configurator.

Below we see Tesla’s new 19″ Slipstream wheels (silver) next to a 21″ Turbine wheel (grey).

Photo credit: Tesla Pittsburgh

The moral of the story is, go visit a Tesla store and jot down notes on what you particularly liked about each selection. Gawk at the showroom Tesla. Touch the wheels, feel the interior trim selections, and soak in the characteristics for each option.

After all, you can’t get a better perspective of a product than to see it with your own eyes.

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Tesla has officially released information on the upcoming Model 3 unveiling event to be held on March 31st at 7:00 pm at the Tesla Design Center in Hawthorne, CA.

Similar to previous launch events held by Tesla, invitations were sent to most existing Tesla owners, but here’s the catch – only 650 lucky hopefuls will be selected by lottery to attend the highly anticipated Model 3 unveil event. The even is scheduled for 7:00pm Pacific though the official livestream doesn’t start until 8:30pm.

As indicated on the invitation by Tesla:

We’re excited to share details of the Model 3 prototype unveiling at an intimate event in Los Angeles, CA for less than 800 people.

We want to share this with Tesla owners first, as a token of our appreciation for your support over the years. We’ve saved 650 places at the event for current owners including their guests.

Those that reply to the invitation by noon PST tomorrow, March 16, will have a chance to be randomly selected to attend the private Model 3 unveiling event. Official invitations will be sent to winners of the lottery on March 17.

The reason for the more intimate event is likely to prevent it from becoming the large spectacle that was of the Model X unveiling event.

Tune in for the 3/31 unveiling on https://t.co/7Ol1Bw0ZaG #Model3 pic.twitter.com/P1PY0U8H4T

— Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) March 15, 2016

It’s unknown at the moment how many general invitations were sent out, and of the ones sent, how many will enter themselves into the raffle, but rest assured that there’s plenty of wishes being made right about now.

Be sure to watch the Tesla Model 3 livestream on March 31st.

Here’s a copy of the full invitation.

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For those that won’t be part of the lucky 650 lottery-drawn people that will have the opportunity to witness the Model 3 unveiling on March 31st, Tesla will be offering a livestream of the event beginning at 8:30pm Pacific that same day.

Tune in for the 3/31 unveiling on https://t.co/7Ol1Bw0ZaG #Model3 pic.twitter.com/P1PY0U8H4T

— Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) March 15, 2016

Attendees of what Tesla describes as an intimate event will likely have a far different experience than the estimated 5,000 plus people that attended the Model X launch event last year. For one, Tesla has set the expectation that there will be a one and a half hours between the 7pm event start time and the livestream scheduled for 8:30pm.

This comes after attendees of the Model X launch event were reportedly unhappy of Elon Musk’s delay in taking the stage. One customer in particular was so aggravated by how the event was managed, he personally called out Elon Musk in an open letter. Elon responded by canceling the man’s Model X reservation.

Previous events held at the Tesla Design Center in Hawthorne, CA

The level of excitement in the air ahead of Tesla’s reveal of the highly anticipated mass market vehicle is at an all time high. Though there’s still a couple of weeks before the finer details of the Model 3 emerge, we know so far that the vehicle will be similar in size as the Audi A4, have over 200 miles of range, and cost $35,000 before incentives. Tesla will also open up Model 3 online reservations that evening as the unveil event begins.

Watch the Tesla Model 3 livestream on March 31st, and also be sure to follow us on Twitter to catch a candid inside look from the event.

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When Tesla announced that less than 800 people will be invited to the upcoming Model 3 unveiling event on March 31st, it also provided insight on when people could place their $1,000 reservation deposit.

Model 3 reservations will open in Tesla stores at 10am PDT (1pm EDT). Interested parties that might not be so keen on waiting in line and participating in what’s been rumored to become an Apple-esque type event, Tesla will also open up online reservations for the Model 3 as soon the unveiling event (and livestream) begins later that evening at 8:30pm PDT.

Amidst the growing aura of excitement and anticipation leading up to the event, future Model 3 reservations holders are questioning how the company will determine reservation priority.

Will Tesla take into account Time Zones when reservations are placed? How do I ensure that my reservation is placed into an early queue?

One piece of information towards the bottom of the Model 3 event lottery form is a passage that discusses how Tesla will prioritize reservations.

“As a current owner who has supported Tesla and our mission, your reservation will take priority and be placed ahead of non-owners.”

– The Tesla Team

Tesla will be giving existing owners priority on a Model 3 over first-time buyers. Considering there are over 100,000 Model S’ on the road today and presumably well over 300,000 Teslas by the time the first Model 3 is delivered at the end of 2017, Tesla would be prioritizing potentially hundreds of thousands of reservations over first-time buyers, that is assuming existing owners also become Model 3 reservation holders.

With that news, we can almost bet that a large line of people will form outside of Tesla stores well before the official 10am PDT reservation opening. And all with high hopes to become the first reservation holders to what many believe will be the game changer in mass market adoption of electric vehicles.

Time to call in a sick day.

Bottom portion of the Model 3 lottery form (See the full invitation)

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Tesla invited select media outlets to “take a quick spin” of the Model 3 at the March 31 unveiling event according to inside sources.

Up until now, there’s been much speculation about how much of the Model 3 will actually be revealed. Elon suggested during Tesla’s most recent earnings call that people might only get to see photos of the $35,000 mass-market electric vehicle, leading many to believe that there may not be an actual car on display. The latest report by SlashGear validates the claim that journalists will be able “to take a quick spin in what we’ve been working on,” at the Model 3 event.

With 2 weeks to go before the official unveiling, other small but critical details are starting to emerge about the the car itself. YouTuber Robert Massaioli used his photo manipulation skills to overlay the silhouette of what is presumably the Model 3 onto the white Model S on the left. His results show that the two outlines match perfectly.

What can we learn from that, and what is Tesla trying to tell us by using the blacked out image of Model S on the invitation? Traditionally Tesla has always used an accurate depiction of the vehicle in its teaser images. It did so when it teased the ‘D’ and Model X, thereafter.

If Tesla sticks to its past tradition, the latest finding could suggest that the Model 3 will be visually similar to the Model S.

Live streaming for the event begins at 8:30 pm PDT on March 31.

Photo credit: Gery Gergő

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For months I have been half joking about scoring an invite to the Model 3 unveiling event by becoming a “famous” YouTube star. In fact, I started wondering how I could pull this off before Tesla even announced details, and without knowing much about how Tesla handled invites for other events. When the D event was announced, our Model S was on order but I hadn’t yet experienced the buzz surrounding events as an official enthusiast. Most of this joking was made on the Forum section of the Tesla Motors website. In fact, on January 8th, this post was started, shouting into the void in case anyone from Tesla management was listening. A fellow forum user was cheering me on, despite none of us at the time really knowing how one would be able to be invited, outside of making 10 or more qualified sales in the second referral contest.

On March 15th, Tesla announced official details about the upcoming Model 3 unveiling event. It would be held at 7pm on March 31st in the Los Angeles area and be an ‘intimate’ event. To show appreciation to existing owners, a lottery system would be used to fill 650 of the fewer than 800 spaces available for the event.

As soon as the email inviting owners to register for the lottery came through, I urged my husband that we should do it. He worried what would happen if we actually got selected, and was convinced it would happen. We had plans to take off work and arrive at our local service center bright and early to make our reservation for a Model 3. I want nothing more than to get it as soon as possible to be rid of our second car – my ICE Hyundai – and planned to reserve as early as physically possible.

In the hours and day to follow, I started to get nervous. ‘What if we get selected?’ I thought. That would mean an unexpected trip, un-budgeted airfare, and missing the chance to reserve in store the minute it opens. I can’t say whether or not I officially regretted entering the lottery at that moment, but I knew that in the extremely unlikely event of getting selected, I’d have a lot of thinking to do.

March 17th came and went without hearing anything. There was not yet any chatter about owners getting selected by the time I went to sleep on the East Coast and I assumed the word would come down overnight. By the time my alarm sounded at 6:30am, my better half was already nearly done his workout at the gym. He sent me this email, “Obviously we need to chat ….”

Yes, it happened. Just as he predicted it would, we got selected to attend the event. I squealed a little. I jumped out of bed. I ran right to my computer and for reasons unbeknownst to me at this moment, I posted a video of my face sharing in the excitement.

I texted my husband the words “Yes, yes, yes!”  I started searching flights. To be honest I had already searched flights and saved an itinerary two days prior which would get us a direct flight at a semi-reasonable price. Back in January, I took first place in one of my fantasy football leagues. $281 in winnings were set aside “just in case” I had a plane ticket to buy in late March. This was supposed to be the week I spent it on something stupid, since by now I’d know that there was no chance I would be at the Model 3 event.

$860. Each. That was the price of the exact flight that was only five-something two days earlier. No way that was going to work. I started to realize that in the few times I had searched flights for the day, anything under $600 was pretty rare, unfortunately. Flights are meant to be booked well in advance and we just didn’t have that luxury.

Maybe we should drive to LA. Shoot, I’m going to be late for work. I drove the whole way with my head buzzing trying to figure out how best to get my butt to LA in two weeks. “We’re still young, we can do this”, I thought. It’s probably only two days of driving. Per the EV Trip Planner, it’s 55 hours each way. Wait, that’s not going to work. There were only 24 hours in a day last time I checked, and we’d need to sleep. (I googled a notable EV cross country trip and realized they had three drivers, took turns sleeping, and had more backup drivers following in an ICE. It took meticulous planning.)

For a few hours I took a mental break. Little did I know the Mister was at searching flights. Once he told me about one he found, a feeling of urgency started setting in. My tone got a bit frantic and I ended up booking before he could give me his blessing.

Breathe. We’re going. What’s $1056 at a time like this? This is the beauty (downfall?) of credit cards, I don’t really have to think about it until the due date next month. In my mind tens of thousands of owners signed up for a chance to be at this event and passing up on an RSVP (that we volunteered for) wasn’t an option.

What about my plans to reserve in store at the first possible moment? I’ll be in the air. There are no scenarios where I can be at a store (even one in California) anywhere near the first hour. I called my local service center and asked for someone in sales to call me back.

“I understand you have a question about reserving a Model 3.”

“I promise you won’t have gotten this question from anyone yet. Wanna bet? No, that’s stupid, let me just tell you… I planned on coming by and waiting around, maybe bringing coffee and donuts to hang out with you guys and place my deposit at the first possible moment. But I can’t. I’ll be in the air. On my way to Hawthorne!” 

A very pleasant and supportive voice congratulated me. He reminded me that owners would be prioritized over non-owners. I told him of my crazy theory that even reserving at the event, 9 hours after in-store reservations started, could mean 6 months or more of production wait. He chuckled and mentioned getting roughly 15 visits or phone calls every day last week asking about reserving. And that’s in Pennsylvania, where only a previous few EV owners live.

Reservation worries aside, I’m pretty pumped about the event. Do you have any speculation about what to expect? Or for that matter, what the dress code will be? Let me know in the comments section!

See recent posts from Electric Jen.

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Tesla Motors has released a statement telling people precisely how to go about reserving a Model 3 on March 31.

Reserving your Model 3

Tune in to the Model 3 unveil on March 31st at 8:30pm PT on Tesla.com. We can’t wait to show you what we’ve been working on.

Hope this information helps. Good luck, everybody!

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Model 3, Model 3, Model 3!

Excitement is at an all time high as the world awaits next week’s reveal of the Model 3. 650 lucky invitees, including our very own Electric Jen, will witness a live unveiling of the Model 3 at the Tesla Design Center in Hawthorne, CA. A live stream of the Model 3 unveiling event will be available beginning at 8:30pm PT.

Tesla has also announced details on how to reserve a Model 3 both in-store and online on March 31 st.

Now on to the show.

This week on Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast:

“Tesla reveals new key details about how Model 3 reservations are going to work. I spend the whole show talking through reservation priority, March 31 details, and more. And since I recorded, I learned that it is confirmed that test rides will be available for attendees of the event, which means there are indeed driving prototypes.”

Listen on iTunes, libsyn, and Stitcher

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Bloomberg believes the Tesla Model 3 could dominate what the car industry calls the “compact executive” or “small luxury” class. Why? For the very same reasons the Model S is dominating the full size luxury car market in America — it offers better performance and a higher driving experience with greater safety for less money.

Source: Bloomberg/Edmunds/Tesla Motors

According to a report from Bloomberg, the Model S is one of the least expensive options among all luxury cars. The Model 3 will also be one of the least expensive options in the small luxury class though it would be a mistake to compare the Model 3 to the Chevy Bolt or the Nissan LEAF.

Yes, both the Bolt and LEAF will offer drivers about the same range as the Model 3, but those cars are aimed at people who buy Civics, Corollas, and Altimas. The Model 3 will compete with the BMW 3 Series, Mercedes C Class, and Audi A4. Compared to the price of those cars, the Model 3 may appear to be a bargain.

Sourece: Bloomberg/Edmunds/Tesla Motors

Bloomberg raves about the Model S, heaping accolades on it for being faster than almost any other production car on earth while offering an extraordinary level of safety to the people riding inside. Assuming the Model 3 blows away the competition the way the Model S does, it will outsell the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes C Class by a significant margin. “For the newest Tesla to dominate entry-level luxury by the same margin held by the Model S in large luxury, it would mean sales of almost 170,000 a year in the U.S.,” says Bloomberg.

Forget about gas prices, it says. People who buy a BMW 3 Series or a Mercedes C Class don’t care very much about what they are paying at the pump. They are focused on what their cars say about them and their lifestyle. Let the Bolt and LEAF owners of the world worry about pinching pennies. Tesla Model 3 buyers will operate on an entirely different plane, one that looks up to the Model S rather than down to the mass produced people movers of the world.

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Following the widely reported news that Tesla will begin taking the first Model 3 deposits in stores beginning on March 31 at 10am Pacific Time, a new tip comes our way that suggests reservation deposits may begin 10am worldwide. According to Cesar Deschamps who inquired about the Model 3 reservation process while visiting his local Tesla Store, he was told by two staff members that Tesla Corporate had begun instructing stores to immediately process reservations upon store opening.

Deschamps tells us, “I was told they will open here in Miami [Dania] Beach Store at 10am to take reservations. They thought they would be opening at 1pm [ET] to coincide with California, but they confirmed that they heard this morning from Corporate that they will be processing reservations immediately upon opening.”

Existing Tesla owners were first informed through the Model 3 (lottery) invitation email that “reservations will open in Tesla stores on March 31 at 10am PST”, and priority would be given to existing owners. Not surprisingly the announcement was unpopular among non-Tesla owners, many of which have waited years to see the company approach its goal of producing an affordable $35,000 mass-market electric vehicle, and worried they would miss out on redeeming a diminishing electric vehicle tax credit.

Invitation to enter a Model 3 unveiling event lottery sent to existing Tesla owners on March 15, 2016

The latest update allowing Tesla stores to begin taking Model 3 reservation deposits during their local 10am might be a way to curtail some of the negative sentiment that’s developed from non-owners, according to Deschamps when speaking to the Tesla store rep.

“I spoke to two people at the store together, at the same time. They said the info came from their briefing. One said that Elon got a lot of emails complaining about the owners getting preference. This was their way of placating owners whilst pushing loaded cars.”

The strategy makes a lot of sense in many ways. By allowing all parties to place orders during their local time of 10am, this not only appeases those who live in time zones where 10am Pacific would translate to an inopportune local time, but it also incentivizes non-owners to ultimately configure highly optioned cars. By having two sets of variables to determine ones position in the Model 3 production queue makes it more of an equal playing field especially for non-owners.

Deschamps further tells us, from his dialogue with the Tesla store staff, “Each region in the country will have their own queue and yes owners will receive priority first, but only after optioned cars first. In other words, the optioned cars are grouped first (highest will be delivered first) but inside this sub-list owners will get theirs first. So, it will be possible to get my car before an owner if my car has more options and a higher list.”

Just this week Tesla released specifics through its blog on how to reserve a Tesla Model 3. Upon further analysis, there’s no indication of 10am Pacific Time –  the time originally outlined by Tesla as when the Model 3 reservation window begins – listed anywhere within the announcement.

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I’m a big city gal through and through. I didn’t think to get a driver’s license until I was 21. Public transportation and my own two feet were all I needed to get by. When I travel, I tend to take the same approach. I stay in the heart of a city and walk as much as I can. No, from the Gaslamp District of San Diego to the Zoo is not a reasonable distance to walk. Ask me how I know. When public transportation is an option, I jump at the chance without much thought that maybe public transit isn’t as well developed everywhere else as it is in major east coast cities. (I’m talking to you bus driver who took a wrong turn in the unbelievably small downtown area of Fort Myers, Florida.)

I’m also not the world’s best trip planner. I am a bit stubborn about making a plan or visiting typical tourist sites, and as a result, have missed out on things. (It took two trips to San Diego to even bother heading to the zoo.)

This time, things are different. I’m heading to Los Angeles not for a vacation but for a very specific event. That event has a predetermined location and a start time. The start time of the event is just 4 hours after I’m scheduled to land at LAX. The location of the event is 15 miles away from where I will be staying. From what I gather, 15 miles in the LA area during rush hour can be a long trip. I’m also learning that public transportation options are’t all that great for where I’ll be staying.

I can’t just “wing it” this time around. This event is too important and any potential flight delays will shrink an already tight time span. That being said, I have to do something I never do: rent a car.

It won’t just be any car, it will be a tiny, slow, ICE. That’s right, folks. In order to economically and reliably get to and from the airport, as well as go anywhere on that special Thursday the 31st, I am renting a car. Many thanks to several fellow Tesla owners who have offered to assist with airport travel from as far away as Santa Barbara, but I wouldn’t knowingly subject someone to rush hour in LA on my account.

The irony isn’t lost on me and in fact, is almost a sort of tribute. The Model 3 will, in my humble opinion, be the catalyst we enthusiasts all want it to be to usher us out of the ICE age. That is not to say that gasoline cars and trucks won’t continue to be important for decades to come – they will be. But for this gal, I want the daily use of a gasoline car to be a part of my past and not my future. Sure, I’ll still call my brother with the lifted diesel Ford F250 when I need to pick up sheets of drywall. But with any luck, my days of spewing exhaust fumes on a daily basis are numbered.

See recent posts from Electric Jen.

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